{ "kind": "frontier-capital-decision", "schema": 1, "modelVersion": "3.0.0", "valuationDate": "2026-10-18", "capitalVersion": "1.0.0", "snapshot": { "company": "Anthropic", "scenarios": [ { "id": "bear", "label": "Bear", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 49.9, "g1": 0.25, "g2": 0.13, "g3": 0.06, "m27": -0.1, "m30": 0.06, "m36": 0.12, "turns": 1.5, "wacc": 0.16, "tg": 0.025, "roic": 0.12, "stub": -6, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null }, { "id": "base", "label": "Base", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 53.26, "g1": 0.45, "g2": 0.24, "g3": 0.12, "m27": -0.02, "m30": 0.18, "m36": 0.22, "turns": 2.5, "wacc": 0.125, "tg": 0.03, "roic": 0.2, "stub": -3, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null }, { "id": "bull", "label": "Bull", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 56.62, "g1": 0.65, "g2": 0.3, "g3": 0.15, "m27": 0.05, "m30": 0.25, "m36": 0.3, "turns": 3.5, "wacc": 0.105, "tg": 0.035, "roic": 0.25, "stub": -1, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null } ], "plans": [ { "id": "a", "label": "Smaller round", "basis": "pre", "quote": 250, "primaryCapital": 25 }, { "id": "b", "label": "More capital", "basis": "pre", "quote": 300, "primaryCapital": 35 }, { "id": "c", "label": "Higher retention", "basis": "pre", "quote": 300, "primaryCapital": 20 } ], "policy": { "capitalTarget": 25, "retentionFloor": 0.88, "modelCoverageFloor": 1, "holderStake": 0.1 }, "bridge": { "cash": 20, "debt": 5, "otherClaims": 0 } }, "decision": { "selectedPlanId": "a", "rationale": "Illustrative analyst choice: prefer Smaller round because it meets the $25B capital objective and the 88% retained-stake floor with less issuance than More capital. The declared comparison rule is shown separately and must be read alongside the objectives. This is a worked decision, not a real company financing recommendation.", "tradeoff": "More capital raises an additional $10B and allocates more signed modeled residual to existing holders when pre-money modeled equity is below the $635B switching point. Smaller round allocates more above that point. New cash is retained; no operating growth benefit or investment return is inferred.", "reviewTrigger": "Revisit the choice if the capital objective rises above $25B, the retained-stake requirement changes, or the quoted terms change. Recalculate the scenario comparison when dated operating evidence or the explicit equity bridge changes; the $635B switching point belongs to these two offers only.", "informationNeeded": "Confirm unrestricted pre-close cash, current debt and uncovered claims, participating economic rights, transaction costs, use of proceeds, and the basis of the operating forecasts. Seek evidence of achievable financing terms. The assumed quotes and model-conditioned pricing envelope do not establish capital availability." }, "analysis": { "version": "1.0.0", "modelVersion": "3.0.0", "valuationDate": "2026-10-18", "snapshot": { "company": "Anthropic", "scenarios": [ { "id": "bear", "label": "Bear", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 49.9, "g1": 0.25, "g2": 0.13, "g3": 0.06, "m27": -0.1, "m30": 0.06, "m36": 0.12, "turns": 1.5, "wacc": 0.16, "tg": 0.025, "roic": 0.12, "stub": -6, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null }, { "id": "base", "label": "Base", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 53.26, "g1": 0.45, "g2": 0.24, "g3": 0.12, "m27": -0.02, "m30": 0.18, "m36": 0.22, "turns": 2.5, "wacc": 0.125, "tg": 0.03, "roic": 0.2, "stub": -3, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null }, { "id": "bull", "label": "Bull", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 56.62, "g1": 0.65, "g2": 0.3, "g3": 0.15, "m27": 0.05, "m30": 0.25, "m36": 0.3, "turns": 3.5, "wacc": 0.105, "tg": 0.035, "roic": 0.25, "stub": -1, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null 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growth can reduce value.", "This scenario has nonpositive operating enterprise value; no valuation floor is imposed." ] }, { "id": "base", "label": "Base", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 53.26, "g1": 0.45, "g2": 0.24, "g3": 0.12, "m27": -0.02, "m30": 0.18, "m36": 0.22, "turns": 2.5, "wacc": 0.125, "tg": 0.03, "roic": 0.2, "stub": -3, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null, "operatingEv": 367.7712947995601, "perpetualEv": 367.7712947995601, "modelPreMoneyEquity": 382.7712947995601, "warnings": [ "More than 75% of enterprise value comes from the terminal value.", "Terminal ROIC differs from the incremental return implied by the final explicit margin and capital turns." ] }, { "id": "bull", "label": "Bull", "assumptions": { "rev2026": 56.62, "g1": 0.65, "g2": 0.3, "g3": 0.15, "m27": 0.05, "m30": 0.25, "m36": 0.3, "turns": 3.5, "wacc": 0.105, "tg": 0.035, "roic": 0.25, "stub": -1, "tax": 0.25 }, "continuationYears": null, "operatingEv": 1884.3087784008526, "perpetualEv": 1884.3087784008526, 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2, "totalScenarios": 3 }, { "planId": "c", "eligible": false, "worstRegret": null, "worstScenarioIds": [], "minAllocation": 20.473239741675606, "maxAllocation": 1799.3519797507993, "meetsModelCoverageIn": 2, "totalScenarios": 3 } ], "minimax": { "status": "available", "planIds": [ "a" ], "worstRegret": 8.591070252494973 }, "dominance": [], "dominanceStatus": "available", "crossovers": [ { "planA": "a", "planB": "b", "eligiblePair": true, "status": "finite", "equityResidual": 635, "allocation": 600, "inSelectedRange": true, "higherResidualPreferred": "a", "lowerResidualPreferred": "b" }, { "planA": "a", "planB": "c", "eligiblePair": false, "status": "finite", "equityResidual": 140, "allocation": 150, "inSelectedRange": true, "higherResidualPreferred": "c", "lowerResidualPreferred": "a" }, { "planA": "b", "planB": "c", "eligiblePair": false, "status": "finite", "equityResidual": 300, "allocation": 300, "inSelectedRange": true, "higherResidualPreferred": "c", "lowerResidualPreferred": "b" } ] }, "envelope": { "status": "available", "modelQuoteCeiling": 1.8381223911206455, "limitingScenarioIds": [ "bear" ], "maximumPrimaryCapital": 0.25065305333463345, "plans": [ { "planId": "a", "lowerPreMoney": 183.33333333333334, "upperPreMoney": 1.8381223911206455, "status": "empty", "includesLower": true, "withinInputRange": false, "currentQuoteMeets": false }, { "planId": "b", "lowerPreMoney": 256.6666666666667, "upperPreMoney": 1.8381223911206455, "status": "empty", "includesLower": true, "withinInputRange": false, "currentQuoteMeets": false }, { "planId": "c", "lowerPreMoney": 146.66666666666669, "upperPreMoney": 1.8381223911206455, "status": "empty", "includesLower": true, "withinInputRange": false, "currentQuoteMeets": false } ] }, "method": { "basis": "finite-scenario-capital-comparison", "allocationMetric": "existing-cohort-signed-residual", "scenarioWeighting": "none", "comparisonScope": "eligible-submitted-plans-and-listed-scenarios", "proceeds": "retained-as-cash", "operations": "unchanged", "rights": "equal-participating", "fees": 0, "bridgeStatus": "hypothetical", "capitalTargetSource": "analyst-input", "comparisonBand": 7.105427357601002e-15, "quoteInputLimit": 1000000000000, "capitalInputLimit": 1000000000000, "finiteContinuation": "zero-residual-at-cutoff" }, "warnings": [ "Scenario counts describe submitted cases and are not probabilities. Comparisons are conditional on these scenarios, plans and the signed cohort-residual metric.", "Primary proceeds remain cash and operating forecasts are unchanged. The capital objective is an analyst input, not a forecast of funding need." ] } }