Anthropic
Explain the gap.
A comparison of operating enterprise value under two explicit sets of assumptions. All financial values are USD billions. Neither case is a disclosed company forecast.
01What explains the change
Each group receives its average marginal effect across all 720 replacement orders, using 64 directly calculated combinations. The result depends on the two cases and the six declared groups; it is not a probability or a real-world causal effect.
| Assumption group | Allocated EV change | Inputs included |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue scale & growth | +$639.5B | rev2026, g1, g2 |
| Operating margins | +$363.4B | m27, m30, m36 |
| Capital efficiency | +$56.6B | turns |
| Long-run economics | +$455.1B | g3, wacc, tg, roic |
| Tax rate | $0.0B | tax |
| Remaining-2026 cash flow | +$2.0B | stub |
| Sum of contributions | $1,516.5B | Reconciliation residual: 0.00000000B |
Read long-run assumptions together. Late growth, WACC, perpetual growth and terminal ROIC are one group because their validity constraints are linked. Negative EVs and offsetting contributions retain their signs.
“Exact” describes complete enumeration without sampling. Displayed amounts are rounded; floating-point residuals are reported. The reopening link preserves the exact assumptions.
02The assumptions behind each case
These are analyst or user assumptions. Preset labels identify their origin; the table below is the actual case used in every calculation. “pp” means percentage points.
| Assumption / unit | Reference | Alternative | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 model revenue USD bn | 53.26 | 56.62 | +3.4 |
| 2027–2030 annual growth % | 45.00 | 65.00 | +20.0 pp |
| 2031–2033 annual growth % | 24.00 | 30.00 | +6.0 pp |
| 2034–2036 annual growth % | 12.00 | 15.00 | +3.0 pp |
| 2027 EBIT margin % | -2.00 | 5.00 | +7.0 pp |
| 2030 EBIT margin % | 18.00 | 25.00 | +7.0 pp |
| 2036 EBIT margin % | 22.00 | 30.00 | +8.0 pp |
| Sales / invested capital × | 2.500 | 3.500 | +1.0 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) % | 12.50 | 10.50 | -2.0 pp |
| Perpetual growth % | 3.00 | 3.50 | +0.5 pp |
| Terminal ROIC % | 20.00 | 25.00 | +5.0 pp |
| Remaining-2026 FCFF USD bn | -3.00 | -1.00 | +2.0 |
| Tax on positive EBIT % | 25.00 | 25.00 | 0.0 pp |
Follow both cash-flow paths
| Year | Revenue Ref | Revenue Alt | FCFF Ref | FCFF Alt | PV Ref | PV Alt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.2 | 93.4 | -11.1 | -7.0 | -9.7 | -6.2 |
| 2028 | 112.0 | 154.1 | -10.0 | -3.9 | -7.7 | -3.1 |
| 2029 | 162.4 | 254.3 | -6.4 | 6.3 | -4.4 | 4.6 |
| 2030 | 235.4 | 419.7 | 2.6 | 31.5 | 1.6 | 20.7 |
| 2031 | 291.9 | 545.6 | 18.3 | 69.7 | 9.9 | 41.5 |
| 2032 | 362.0 | 709.2 | 24.5 | 95.1 | 11.8 | 51.2 |
| 2033 | 448.9 | 922.0 | 32.6 | 129.4 | 13.9 | 63.0 |
| 2034 | 502.8 | 1,060.3 | 56.4 | 185.8 | 21.5 | 81.9 |
| 2035 | 563.1 | 1,219.4 | 66.0 | 221.3 | 22.3 | 88.3 |
| 2036 | 630.7 | 1,402.3 | 77.0 | 263.3 | 23.2 | 95.0 |
Remaining-2026 cash flow is included once and separately: reference PV −$2.9B; alternative PV −$1.0B. FCFF deducts taxes on positive EBIT and net reinvestment; no NOL tax benefit is assumed.
Reference peak cumulative FCFF deficit: $30.5B.
Alternative peak cumulative FCFF deficit: $11.9B.
These deficits are modeled operating indicators, not cash runway or exact external funding requirements. Opening liquidity, financing, contractual payment timing and intrayear cash movements are outside the model.
03What would support the target?
Target operating EV: $500.0B. WACC window: 8.5%–14.5%. Displayed margin range: 6.0%–30.0%.
The required 2036 EBIT margin is solved at each displayed WACC, holding the alternative case's other eleven inputs fixed. Changing that margin also changes the interpolated 2031–2036 margins. A required margin outside the displayed range is labeled, not extrapolated.
| WACC | Required margin | EV / range outcome | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | — | Below displayed margin range | The target requires an operating margin below the supplied margin range. |
| 9.0% | — | Below displayed margin range | The target requires an operating margin below the supplied margin range. |
| 9.5% | — | Below displayed margin range | The target requires an operating margin below the supplied margin range. |
| 10.0% | 6.4% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 10.5% | 7.1% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 11.0% | 7.9% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 11.5% | 8.7% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 12.0% | 9.6% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 12.5% | 10.5% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 13.0% | 11.4% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 13.5% | 12.4% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 14.0% | 13.5% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
| 14.5% | 14.6% | $500.0B | Solved within the displayed range |
169 of 169 displayed grid combinations are model-valid. This is a count of deterministic inputs, not a probability or confidence level. Solved points use the shared model directly; connecting lines in the interactive view are visual guides.
Evidence context and method
The company evidence does not establish every forecast assumption. Financing values use an equity basis and are separate from the operating EV target above. Source limitations travel with the evidence.
S01 · Anthropic · 2026-05-28Series H financingPrimary company announcement; unaudited operating run-rate claim.
S04 · Reuters · 2026-10-15T21:00:00ZAnthropic investor-day updateMultiple unnamed people with knowledge of investor-day disclosures; company did not respond.
S18 · Reuters · 2026-10-14; updated 2026-10-15Anthropic Q3 investor-day revenueBased on investor-day reporting; underlying statements and an adjusted-profit reconciliation were not reviewed.
S19 · Aswath Damodaran / NYU Stern · Undated; retrieved 2026-10-18Stable growth and reinvestmentSupports a valuation relationship, not a company-specific discount rate, return on capital or growth assumption.
Attribution methodSundararajan & Najmi (2020), The Many Shapley Values for Model ExplanationBaseline Shapley allocation, with the six fixed groups disclosed in this comparison.
Research cutoff: 2026-10-18T09:22:26-07:00. This document does not imply a live financial-data update.