Two frontier AI companies.
Ten years of cash flows.
One question worth taking apart.
Follow both revenue paths on the same scale.
Each bar shows a discounted contribution to enterprise value. Negative cash flows remain to the left of zero.
Illustrative base cases · Valuation date 18 Oct 2026
Growth is an assumption. Value is what the cash flows can support.
Explore the complete modelAdjust the same four drivers for both companies. See the enterprise value consequences immediately, then take either case into the full model.
Annual growth, 2027–2030
Final EBIT margin; earlier anchors stay fixed
Discount rate applied to future cash flows
Sales / invested capital; higher uses less capital
pp = percentage points. Each change is relative to the selected scenario. The comparison above keeps the original scenario.
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Conditional scenarios; no probabilities assigned. Enterprise value excludes a cash, debt and other claims bridge.
Enterprise value measures the operating business. Completed financing prices and valuation expectations are separate equity references.
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Annual forecast · USD billions · 2027–2036
The outlined cell is the current case. Other assumptions stay fixed. A dash marks an invalid WACC, growth or terminal ROIC combination.
Solve the 2027–2030 annual revenue growth required to reach your target enterprise value. Later growth, margins and capital assumptions stay fixed.
Enter an enterprise value to explore a required growth path.
Search range: 0–200% early growth. A solved path is a conditional scenario; it is not a likelihood or an investment recommendation. A financing price is not an EV target without an explicit bridge.
Translate enterprise value using your cash, debt and other claims assumptions. Zeroes are editable placeholders, not disclosed balances.
Equity value = enterprise value + cash − debt − other claims. This simplified bridge does not model share classes, dilution or preferences.
Reported revenue, annualized run-rate and capital raised answer different questions. This research preserves those distinctions and identifies where assumptions begin.
Source labels describe the evidence used. They do not establish audited financial statements. Public information may omit accounting definitions, timing, contractual conditions and balance-sheet detail.
A free cash flow to the firm model, with explicit reinvestment, actual-date discounting and a separate equity bridge. Inspect the calculation and its limits.
Revenue grows in three periods: 2027–2030, 2031–2033 and 2034–2036. EBIT margins interpolate through the 2027, 2030 and 2036 assumptions. The 2026 revenue input is a model starting point and is identified separately from disclosed revenue or run-rate.
Positive EBIT is taxed at the assumed rate. Net reinvestment equals incremental revenue divided by sales-to-invested-capital. That amount includes net capex and working capital; adding either separately would count it twice.
The model does not include NOL carryforwards or tax assets. Negative EBIT receives no modeled tax benefit.
The remaining-2026 FCFF input is discounted from 18 October 2026 to year-end. Full forecast cash flows are discounted to each subsequent year-end using elapsed days divided by 365.25. The stub appears once in enterprise value.
Terminal cash flow uses next-year NOPAT and reinvestment consistent with perpetual growth and terminal return on invested capital. WACC and terminal ROIC must both exceed perpetual growth. The model exposes how much EV comes from terminal value and how terminal FCFF changes from 2036.
The primary result values the operating business. The optional bridge adds assumed cash and subtracts assumed debt and other claims. Completed funding-round prices, reported asks and capital commitments retain their own labels; none is silently substituted for enterprise value.
A project by Charles Dai, connecting financial judgment, source discipline and full stack engineering.
Growth pays for the capital it needs. Terminal returns must earn their place. Enterprise value stays distinct from an equity financing price.
Read the researchOne deterministic model powers the browser and the API. Independent reference calculations and automated checks make the numbers inspectable.
Inspect the code & tests (opens in a new tab)Company disclosures, reported information and analyst assumptions retain their own labels. Each source carries a date, a purpose and a limitation.
Trace the evidence